Was Yuan Shikai the republic’s betrayer or its only hope?

The short answer

• The Beiyang network. Yuan built the Qing's modern Beiyang Army in the 1890s and 1900s. Its commanders' careers depended on his patronage: he promoted and paid them, and marriages and other connections joined them to his circle. These ties made the army a powerful instrument for the republic, but they did not give the constitution an independent hold over its officers. After Yuan's death, Beiyang commanders and provincial imitators could use their own military networks to pursue power.
• A fragile constitutional settlement. The 1912 settlement had been negotiated among elites. About 40 million men were nominally enfranchised for the 1912–13 elections, but the representatives they chose lacked an effective means of enforcing constitutional rules against the army's commander. Song's murder and Yuan's dissolution of parliament showed how little protection those rules afforded. In 1915–16 provincial armies would show that they could resist him by force.
• The opportunity for Japan. The European war gave Japan room to act in China. Britain needed the Japanese navy, Russia was absorbed by the war in Europe, and Germany was Japan's enemy. Japan seized the German position in Shandong and presented its demands while the European powers were preoccupied. Although the most intrusive clauses were withdrawn, Japan kept important advantages in Shandong. Another opportunity for Japanese expansion would arise in 1931.
• The monarchy miscalculation. Some of Yuan's advisers believed a throne could give his government lasting legitimacy. The American constitutional scholar Frank Goodnow wrote a memorandum on monarchy that supporters quoted beyond its intended scope. But the Qing's fall had ended the old imperial claim to the Mandate of Heaven, and Yuan's own bid failed to secure the backing he needed. Provincial leaders and men in his military network opposed him, combining republican objections with concern for provincial power. Their resistance showed that regional commanders could check the center.

What it changed

Military rivalry after Yuan. After Yuan's death, Duan Qirui, Feng Guozhang, and Cao Kun were among the commanders who inherited parts of his Beiyang network. They and their allies fought for the Peking government, whose international recognition and access to customs revenue made it a valuable prize. The grey-tan plates in the next snapshot show the division that followed.

A grievance carried forward. Japan's seizure of Shandong and its Twenty-One Demands gave Chinese nationalism a concrete grievance. The dispute continued after Yuan's death. In 1919 the Versailles settlement awarded Japan Germany's former rights in Shandong, prompting the student marches described in Chapter 3.

Sun seeks another route. Sun Yat-sen's defeat and exile sent him searching for support to build a political movement with military power behind it. Western governments did not provide what he sought. In 1923 he found a partner in Moscow, beginning an arrangement that would shape the party and army in Chapters 4 and 5.